News Release: Politics

Apr. 23,  2008

Clinton Needs Wins in N.C., in Primaries, Says Emory's Abramowitz

To change the dynamics of the Democratic race and convince superdelegates to begin moving in her direction, Hillary Clinton needs to defeat Barack Obama or hold him to a narrow win in North Carolina and score a big win in Indiana, says Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz.

Clinton's decisive victory in yesterday's Pennsylvania primary allows her to continue her campaign for at least another two weeks, says Abramowitz. But Clinton's margin of victory, about 9 points, and the net delegate gain that it will provide, about 15 delegates "mean that the fundamentals of the Democratic race have not changed," he says.

"Barack Obama retains a solid lead in the overall and pledged delegate counts. He continues to lead in most national polls of Democratic voters and has a double-digit lead in the state of North Carolina, which holds its primary on May 6th," says Abramowitz.

"A big win in North Carolina for Obama, combined with a narrow win or loss in Indiana, which also votes on May 6th, and where the polls show the race to be very close," he says, "would likely restore Obama's delegate lead back to where it was before Pennsylvania."

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