News Release: Faculty Experts, Politics, Research

Nov. 5,  2008

Polling Expert's Prediction Coming True

As of Wednesday afternoon, Nov. 5, Barack Obama was leading John McCain by just over 6 percentage points in the national popular vote. That's not too far off from the prediction made by Emory political scientist Alan Abramowitz back in August of an 8-9 point Obama margin based on his time-for-change forecasting model. 

"And Obama's margin is likely to increase over the next several days as millions of additional votes, many in areas of Obama strength such as California, Oregon and Washington, are counted," he says. 

“By the time all of the votes have been counted," says Abramowitz, "Obama's popular vote margin could be pushing 7 points." That would make the error in the model's prediction of Obama's share of the major party vote around 1 percentage point, which is less than the average error of the final pre-election polls.

"It was a good year for the Democrats and a good year for the time-for-change model," says Abramowitz.

Read more about Abramowitz's time-for-change model.


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